The Chinese leader is well aware of the impending threats, so he has been making an effort. After Trump’s election, he reached out with a congratulatory message stating that “both China and the United States stand to gain from co-operation and lose from confrontation”. But this relationship has to work on Beijing’s terms, too.

It is clear what Xi’s boundaries are. During last month’s APEC meeting with US President Joe Biden, he emphasised the “four red lines” that Washington should not cross: Taiwan, democracy and human rights, the Chinese political system, and Beijing’s right to development. The declaration was a clear warning to the Trump administration that breaching them could further heighten tensions.

Some form of formal communication channels should be established before any further tariffs are imposed by Washington, to prevent a cycle of retaliation from Beijing. If that doesn’t happen, it will take months or even longer to get both sides back to the negotiating table. There is a potential template that currently exists for talks: The strategic channel between National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Foreign Minister Wang Yi that has helped stabilise relations since 2022.

There have been rare moments of coming together. Most recently, the countries signed an agreement extending bilateral government-to-government scientific co-operation for another five years. It allows for science and tech co-operation but minimises the risk to national security, and keeps the development of critical and emerging technologies off-limits to Beijing.

On China’s side, rebuilding relations will depend on its perception of Trump’s new national security team and whether there will be any room to create back channels for future negotiations.

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The new Washington administration could adopt a more transactional approach that could leave Taiwan’s security ending up as a bargaining chip. Last week’s naval exercises around the Taiwan Strait were among Beijing’s largest in 30 years, according to Taiwanese officials – a reminder that China sees the self-ruled island as its own, and it wants the US to stay out of its way.

The most we can hope for is a renewed cordiality between Trump and Xi. The nature of the US-China relationship will be defined by strategic competition. Preventing further deterioration is crucial.

Bloomberg