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The words "Vote No" appear in the sky over Sydney and social media lights up with outrage.
A former prime minister is headbutted in the street and is accused online of "milking it".
The Yes campaign is in serious danger of going off the rails, if it hasn't already.
No-one wanted this postal vote. Even the Government admits it's not its preferred option.
But it's happening and the stakes couldn't be higher.
The Prime Minister confirmed this week that if the No camp succeeded, that would be the end of the matter — in this term of Government and the next. We're talking another four to five years at least.
If Bill Shorten wins the election and tries to legislate same-sex marriage within 100 days, he'll face accusations of defying the will of the people and stiff resistance from within.
There is a small, but significant, number of Labor MPs and senators who don't support same-sex marriage and, since they'll be bound to vote yes, might have to choose between quitting the party or abandoning their strongly held views.
It's one of the reasons Mr Shorten wants the matter dealt with in this term of Parliament.
Remember, last time Labor was in government, the party had the chance to change the Marriage Act and squibbed it.
One side doing more self-harm
We were warned the postal vote would bring out an ugly debate and it has.
As always, it's the loony fringes on both sides who are responsible and all should be condemned in the strongest possible terms.
Kevin Rudd's godson was punched for sticking up for the Yes camp. Qantas boss Alan Joyce was assaulted with a pie. It's all reprehensible.
But so far, it's the Yes camp that appears to be doing more self-harm.
A campaign to deregister a medical doctor for taking part in a No advertisement. A worker fired via Facebook for voting no. An angry student protest in Brisbane to break up a No meeting in a church. The author of an essay about Safe Schools tweeting he'd like to "hate-f***" anti-gay MPs.
And now the lead campaigner for No, a former prime minister no less, headbutted in the street.
It doesn't matter that it was an ineffective headbutt and that Mr Abbott was "entirely unscathed".
It's a very serious incident and quite rightly has been strongly condemned by both sides.
However, the average punter won't care that none of this came from the "official" Yes campaign.
Headbutt could sway votes
These are the sorts of things that can sway votes.
And make no mistake, same-sex marriage is not in the bag.
Support for same-sex marriage slipped this week by 4 per cent and opposition is up 3 per cent, according to a Guardian Essential poll.
The No campaign, led by John Howard and Mr Abbott (the duo that torpedoed the 1999 push for a republic) is trying to muddy the waters with demands to see the bill for religious protections before votes are counted. (There is a bill by the way, as pointed out in The Australian).
The majority of Australians still want marriage rights for same-sex couples, but millions are somewhat apathetic.
This is not an election. It's a non-compulsory postal survey. That means a lot of people won't bother voting and the side that motivates the greatest number will win.
At the heart of motivation is emotion.
Emotions have to be triggered to get people off the couch and down to the closest post box.
There are incredibly strong, positive motivating factors for gay couples and their friends and families to go out and vote. For them, "Love is Love" is exactly what this is all about.
But in politics, negative emotions often rule the day.
If something (like a headbutt) upsets you or makes you furious, or makes you fear this whole thing is about something other than love, it's a powerful motivating factor.
Survey will be won on emotions
Australians don't like things being rammed down their throat.
As such, some people who don't have a strong view either way could end up voting against the side that annoys them the most.
The side that shows more restraint could win the day, which is why the unimposing simplicity of the No campaign slogan is so deadly: "It's OK to vote No".
It's intellectually flawed to argue it's OK to deny rights to a group of people because some of their campaigners annoy you.
But this vote won't be won through intellectual debate.
It'll be won by the side that can best tap into emotions.
Topics: government-and-politics, marriage, gays-and-lesbians, australia
First posted