To Iran's enemies, the meeting marked the culmination of their worst nightmares. It was a moment marking Iran's victory in ensuring its friends and allies now control a swath of territory spanning the northern edge of the Arab world, from the borders of Iran to the Mediterranean Sea.
In many ways, that meeting on the border, posted online by the media unit of the Iranian-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah in November, was the defining moment of 2017. It marked Iran's resurgence, and, in turn, the failure of American foreign policy. For a US President who vowed to take on Iran and undo his predecessor's steps towards a rapprochement, Donald Trump has unintentionally enabled the Islamic Republic's rise.
Trump promised that defeating ISIS would be his top priority in the region, and US forces have been critical in achieving that goal. But beyond that one priority, US policy in the region is a dog's breakfast of confusion and contradiction that has surprised and alienated US allies and played into the hands of Washington's foes.
The most recent example came in December when Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel against the publicly stated advice of Washington's closest Arab allies, including Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said "the US has chosen to relinquish its competence as mediator, and to disqualify itself from playing a role in the peace process. We shall not accept any role for the United States in the peace process. They've proven their full bias in favor of Israel."
Presiding over this public rejection of the US role in Israeli-Palestinian talks was a formidable group of regional players, including Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Iran's Hassan Rouhani, Jordan's King Abdullah II and Qatar's Emir Tamim Al Thani.
Trump's man in the Middle East
President Trump's closest Arab ally at this tumultuous time is 32-year old Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, who has embarked upon an erratic course of dramatic liberalization at home -- such as finally allowing women to drive and permitting the opening of movie theaters -- and massive miscalculations abroad.
It all amounts to a ham-handed effort to try to force a variety of key players in the Arab world to toe the Saudi line, and so far, all it has yielded is a wave of anti-Saudi sentiment across the region.
All the while the US, with urging from Saudi Arabia and Israel, is trying to cobble together an alliance to counter Iran's growing power. Decades of sanctions and diplomatic isolation haven't neutralized Iran's growing influence, and a collection of countries consumed by bickering and led by a superpower distracted by its own disorder isn't likely to achieve it either. That, plus the prospect of even trying to achieve peace between Israel and the Palestinians -- never an easy task in the best of times -- will become mission impossible under current conditions.
Russia strengthens its hand
Iran's increasing strength and influence coincides with an ever-more assertive Russian presence in the region.
Meanwhile, Russia has continued to improve ties with Turkey, a NATO member state. Moscow and Ankara have been the main sponsors of the Syrian peace talks in Astana, Kazakhstan, where the US has been, at best, a passive observer. In a first, the two countries signed a deal for Turkey to purchase a S-400 surface-to-air missile system.
Here also, Russian assertiveness came with weakening US diplomatic muscle. US support for Kurdish-led forces fighting ISIS in northern Syria has dealt US-Turkish relations a significant blow. Turkey claims that the main Kurdish faction in the country is the Syrian branch of the PKK, which has waged a separatist war against the Turkish state since 1984.
Careening from crisis to crisis
The Trump administration inherited those failures, and has hastily built upon them, threatening to repudiate international agreements such as the Iran nuclear deal, and breaking from long-held positions, such as the status of Jerusalem.
Traditional Europeans allies are breaking ranks with Washington, stepping back as the United States and Saudi Arabia careen from one self-created crisis to another in the Middle East. As the Western alliance splinters, Russia methodically pursues closer ties with an ever more empowered Iran and Turkey.
Washington, consumed and distracted by its own toxic domestic politics, is rushing head-long into, at best, irrelevance, at worst, catastrophe, in the Middle East. If you thought 2017 was a rocky ride in the Middle East, brace yourself for 2018.









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