"Relations are moving forward on the basis of the personal relations between Comrade Chairman (Kim Jong Un) and the US President," North Korea's foreign ministry said this week. "The South Korean authorities would better mind their own internal business."
Sanctions were the main sticking point in Vietnam, and they are also a point where China can come to Pyongyang's aid. Always North Korea's greatest economic ally, China has supported tough moves by the United Nations against Kim's regime since he ramped up nuclear and missile testing, but that does not mean Beijing is committed to Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign.
Trump is in South Korea Sunday for his first visit to the Korean Peninsula since talks with Pyongyang began, he is expected to visit the demilitarized zone (DMZ) between the countries, where he has teased that he may meet Kim in person.
Xi appears to have gotten what he wanted then from the meetings in Osaka, it remains to be seen now if he will use his influence on Kim to get Trump something he wants in South Korea. The three leaders are in a diplomatic triangle, each relying on the others to get them what they desire.
Grand bargaining
In theory, governments are supposed to be able to consider various issues and disputes between them separately: we may be at odds on X but we can still cooperate on Y.
While we don't know the exact details of what Trump and Xi discussed at the G20 this week, Trump has previously underscored the potential economic benefits of a nuclear agreement. And no doubt an open and market orientated North Korea would be sure to benefit Chinese businesses as much as those in the US.
Winners and losers
So what do the players in this diplomatic triangle want from each other, and who's more likely to come out of this month's meetings happy?
Xi is in perhaps the most secure position: He wants relief from US tariffs, but when it comes to North Korea, Beijing has shown itself willing to play both sides, piling the pressure on Pyongyang to reign in its nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) testing, but also happy to provide aid and support when necessary, especially if it weakens rivals Washington and Seoul at critical times.
Kim has made it clear that he wants relief from the crippling international sanctions imposed in the wake of his weapons testing, to enable the North Korean economy to grow and in particular attract investment from the South. But failing that, economic support can come from China instead, and if the US is not willing to move on sanctions, Pyongyang can refuse to further denuclearize safe in the knowledge that Beijing -- and probably Seoul as well -- will not support a return to the maximum pressure and fire and fury approach of two years ago.
That leaves Trump. Washington definitely has the most to offer the other two sides, relief from sanctions and the trade war, but US demands -- capitulation from China on trade issues and full denuclearization of North Korea -- are also far harder to achieve, especially if Trump is not willing to compromise.
A more adept negotiator could likely broker some short term successes and move the game forward, by for example getting China to agree to pressure North Korea to agree to a denuclearization time frame and international inspections in return for some sanctions relief and a dropping of certain trade tariffs.
But that's a messy, complicated process that won't lead to any big headline wins. Whether Trump can work both sides of the triangle he's found himself trapped in remains to be seen.









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