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Posted: 2019-08-24 01:18:34

The collapse of Toys R Us is a salient reminder that the toy industry is not immune from the high street's slump. Hasbro's arch rival Mattel, which owns Barbie and Hot Wheels, has endured a miserable three-year spell in which its shares have sunk by two thirds.

"Kids are definitely on their iPads a lot more," says James Yacoub, retail analyst at GlobalData.

But the toy market is still growing, if more slowly. Any concerns about the prospects of the toy market have not stopped Entertainment One becoming the latest UK-listed company to be swept up in a wave of bids by foreign investors. In the past month, beer giant Greene King and aviation and defence group Cobham have had offers.

Brexit helps sell Peppa

The great British sell-off is being fuelled by a combination of cheap finance and the Brexit-induced fall in the pound that makes UK companies cheaper for international buyers.

Entertainment One has made a habit of being in the right place at the right time. Its boss Darren Throop told London's The Daily Telegraph four years ago that Peppa Pig "wasn't really the primary focus" when it bought DVD distributor Contender in 2007. "But there's no question you have to be lucky to be good," he added.

Its rise is not simply down to luck. His company has developed an enviable portfolio of children's brands and a separate media content business at a time when both are strongly in demand.

The former is of most interest to Nasdaq-listed Hasbro, whose shares fell 8 per cent after the announcement of the bid but remains worth more than $US13.5 billion ($20 billion).

Don't be surprised if a whole herd of toy makers and media giants come sniffing for a piece of Peppa.

The family and brands division of Entertainment One has quality intellectual property (IP) assets in the form of Peppa Pig and PJ Masks. Experts say it is a logical fit with Hasbro's stable of brands, which includes Play-Doh and Monopoly.

Not only does the British target pump out television programmes - Peppa has already appeared in 264 episodes with a further 117 slated to air by 2023 - but it creates opportunities to license and merchandise the brands, delivering remarkable margins.

There are four Peppa Pig theme parks across three continents, including one in Hampshire, and three sites operated by Merlin in Shanghai, Michigan and Dallas. Further sites are planned.

A bargain?

Back in 2015, Entertainment One set a target of boosting global retail sales from Peppa Pig to $US2 billion. Last year the total reached almost $US1.4 billion, generating £90 million in revenue for the company.

If licensed sales of that magnitude can be delivered from one asset alone, a £3.3 billion price tag might seem like a bargain.

The other part of Entertainment One's business, focusing on film, television and music has also delivered some big hits, not least the Oscar-winning Green Book.

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The war for market share among subscription video services such as Netflix, Amazon Prime and Disney means quality content is in demand and streaming services are prepared to pay for it. "Demand for unique content is rising as platforms proliferate," says Catherine O'Neill at Citi.

But just what would Hasbro do with a TV and film business? "I would be amazed if [Entertainment One] is still a whole business in a year," says media industry expert Alex DeGroote.

While the IP in the children's cartoons is a "very complementary add-on" to Hasbro's portfolio and will allow it to increase its strength in the vast Chinese market, he predicts the US company will cherry-pick the assets that match its toy business. The rest may well be "dismembered" and sold to separate buyers to offset the hefty acquisition cost, DeGroote adds.

Shareholders at Entertainment One will be wondering whether management ought to lead the break-up rather than leaving Hasbro, or any other bidder, to do so. Anyone who runs the numbers may conclude that it is worth more if it is sold in parts, says DeGroote.

Hasbro's bid is "a decent exit multiple", says Steve Liechti at Numis, but it is by no means a "knockout".

The company has held out once before after turning down a £1 billion offer from ITV in 2016.

This time around the board has accepted the bid - but don't be surprised if a whole herd of toy makers and media giants come sniffing for a piece of Peppa.

The Daily Telegraph, London

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