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From Nixon to Barack Obama, US Presidents sought to manage China's rise while avoiding a clash. Economic reform was thought certain to spur political reform in China and integration with the West. But that rationale has now splintered as China seeks to show the world that individual freedoms are not a condition for prosperity. And the growing rivalry is exacerbated by leaders — Trump and Xi Jinping — who use nationalism and vows to make their countries great again to flex personal and global power.
While trade with China and a flood of consumer goods enriched Americans, it caused Rust Belt blight that Trump exploited to win the White House. At war over trade and shadow boxing over Taiwan and the South China Sea, the rivals are waging a great power duel in Asia that could soon span the planet.
The Nixon consensus has faded because there's bipartisan support in Washington for Trump's tough stand on China — if not for his methods. The next US President will have no political room to back down on trade and Xi won't bow to American bullying. As China celebrates its transformation, the question now is how each side in the world's most important geopolitical relationship will manage their growing struggle for superiority.
"They are playing with fire"
Men of letters
Conflicting basic values have threatened to tear apart the US-China relationship before. In 1989, an exchange of letters between then-President George H.W. Bush and China's then-leader Deng Xiaoping underscored that tension after the Tiananmen Square massacre.
"Please understand that this letter has been personally written and is coming to you from one who wants to see us go forward together," Bush writes. "Please do not be angry with me if I have crossed the invisible threshold lying between constructive suggestion and internal interference."
Today, as China warns the rest of the world against interfering in its domestic business, it's hard to imagine Trump addressing Xi in such a manner -- not least since both nations now appear to have consciously chosen a collision course.