Posted
It has been a crazy year in UK politics, and it has all led to this moment: a vote on whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson should stay on to carry the country through Brexit.
The British election is on December 12, UK time, but in Australia we can expect to see most of it play out on Friday, December 13.
Here are the key times you need to know and how the outcome of the election will affect Brexit:
Thursday, 6:00pm AEDT
Voting will begin at 7:00am, Thursday (UK time) when polling stations open. Roughly 46 million voters will be invited to choose an MP in one of 650 constituencies.
Voters can cast their ballots in person at polling stations across the country, or through the post in advance.
Friday, 9:00am AEDT
Polls close at 10:00pm Thursday (UK time) in England and Northern Ireland.
Most constituencies should begin counting votes immediately after the polls close. Counting should happen in two stages, over the next several hours.
9:30am to 11:00am AEDT
According to some reports you can expect to see first results arrive between 10:30pm and midnight (UK time).
Sunderland and Newcastle have denied they'll be racing to declare, but seats in the two rival cities traditionally vie to return the first result of the night.
Some experts suggest early results are skewed towards safe Labour seats.
1:00pm AEDT
If it doesn't end up being a close race, the process for counting votes should be finished by about 2:00am (UK time) with the winner announced shortly after.
If it's looking like a close race, it could take longer. However, all results are expected to be declared by the end of December 13 (UK time).
Photo:
If it's looking like a close race, it could take longer to get a result. (AP: Kirsty Wigglesworth)
With all 650 seats in the House of Commons up for grabs, the winning party needs 326 seats to get an absolute majority.
However, the actual number for a majority could be lower. MPs elected for the Sinn Fein party in Northern Ireland don't actually take up their seats.
This happened at the 2017 election, with Sinn Fein winning seven seats and effectively lowering the threshold at that election to 322.
If there is a clear winner or loser based on the exit poll and the declaration of final results, the loser may choose to concede, or a winner may declare victory.
But if the result is expected to be close, parties are likely to wait until almost all the numbers are in.
Photo:
The Queen has the final say in appointing a prime minister, but she is bound by convention and will appoint the leader of whichever party has a majority. (Reuters: Victoria Jones)
When the results are clear, the leader of the winning party visits Buckingham Palace to ask the Queen for permission to form government.
Queen Elizabeth II in this case is bound to follow advice and appoint the party's choice for prime minister.
From 7:00pm AEDT
A statement is usually delivered outside Number 10 Downing Street about 8:00am (UK time) or sometime after.
In 2017, for example, Theresa May spoke at a lectern outside after visiting the Queen at Buckingham Palace.
What if we don't get a result on the night?
If no party wins a majority, it is called a "hung parliament". You might already be familiar with the term, since Australia faced the same situation in 2018.
In cases where this happens, the party with the most seats can try to form an alliance with other parties to give it enough support to win a vote in Parliament.
What if there is a tie?
As the incumbent, Boris Johnson would get the first shot at putting together an arrangement to command a majority in Parliament.
For example, in 2010 the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats formed a coalition arrangement to control the House.
Or it could also be a 'Confidence and Supply' agreement with a smaller party to support the government, as happened in 2017 between the Conservatives and Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party.
And if Mr Johnson can't form a government he can resign and recommend that the leader of the largest opposition party, likely Jeremy Corbyn, is given a chance to form the executive.
So how will this affect Brexit?
Given this election was called early after a stalemate in Parliament over the withdrawal deal with the EU, the outcome will decide how Brexit plays out.
Currently, the UK is set to leave the European Union on January 31, 2020.
However, that could change. These are the four ways Brexit could play out after the election.
1. If Johnson wins, a deal is passed and the UK leaves the EU
Mr Johnson has pledged if the Conservatives win a majority, he will get Parliament to ratify his withdrawal agreement.
If he gets this done in January, he will take the UK out of the EU before or on the current January 31 deadline.
Photo:
Mr Johnson has pledged he will get Parliament to ratify his Brexit deal. (AP: Kirsty Wigglesworth)
The UK has already flagged that it expects to complete trade deals with a number of countries, including Australia, within months of exiting the European Union.
2. Britain leaves the EU without a deal
Again if Mr Johnson wins, but is unable to get Parliament to ratify his agreement, he has still pledged to leave the EU by January 31.
That would lead to a no-deal Brexit, which the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility has previously warned could cause a recession.
3. There's another extension and more negotiations
Labour, which the polls suggest would need a last-minute swing in public opinion to claim a majority of its own, has promised to negotiate a new Brexit deal with the EU.
Of course this would require another delay to the existing deadline.
Labor has said it would then give voters a choice between leaving under that deal or staying in the bloc.
4.They hold a second referendum
As flagged above, Labour has said it will take a new deal to the British people. According to the BBC, there are two ways that vote could be held.
The first could be similar to the original Brexit referendum in 2016, with the Government given the choice on how to respond to the result.
On the other hand, another option would be to hold a legally binding vote, with voters given the choice to approve the new deal or to remain in the UK.
Topics: government-and-politics, world-politics, referendums, community-and-society, united-kingdom









Add Category




