• Initial Australian job losses have been quantified by the ABS, with 7.5% of jobs disappearing in the first month of the government’s social distancing measures.
• Applied to the entire labour force, it suggests nearly one million people lost their job between 14 March and 18 April.
• It comes as the federal government approaches a review of its restrictions, amid speculation it will relax some measures.
• Visit Business Insider Australia’s homepage for more stories.

Keeping 1.5 metres apart has kept almost one million Australians at arms length from a job, the latest ABS figures show.

In the month since mid-March when government restrictions were implemented, the number of employee jobs plummeted 7.5%, according to the Bureau of Statistics’ newly created business payroll reading.

Applied to a workforce numbering just shy of 13 million Australians, it amounts to nearly 1 million job losses. Wages meanwhile fell by 8.2%, showing a trend of pay cuts over job cuts.

The chart above speaks to exactly how the decline occurred over a period of four weeks. The sharpest two weeks of declines fell in weeks two and three, directly after the federal government announced its stage two lockdown on 22 March.

In contrast, the announcement on 30 March that it was unrolling its $130 billion Jobkeeper wage subsidy program appears to have slowed the decline in both wages and jobs shown in weeks three and four of the data.

“The damage has been caused in a little over a month, reflecting widespread shutdown of economic activity both domestically and abroad,” Indeed economist Callam Pickering said in a note issued to Business Insider Australia. “Hospitality and arts [as well as] recreation are the two industries hardest hit.”

“Payrolls in accommodation & food services have been cut by one-third [while] before COVID-19 around 940,000 people were employed in the sector. Workers in arts & recreation have also suffered, with payrolls down 27%.”

Essential services have seen little economic fallout, with the healthcare, utilities, and education sectors showing little change, along with financial services.

In terms of states, it was Victoria and Tasmania that were the worst affected, perhaps owing to the former’s tighter restrictions and the latter’s heavy reliance on tourism.

Pickering also noted women – and especially younger women – had been disproportionately hurt by the downturn.

“Young women are often concentrated in hospitality or retail and are more likely to be working casual hours. They are particularly susceptible to the economic impact of COVID-19 and the limitations of the JobKeeper program that provides limited support for casual workers,” he said.

Certainly, both state and federal governments are eager to open back up for business given the losses.

“For every extra week that the current restrictions remain in place, Treasury estimate that close to $4 billion will be reduced in economic activity, from a combination of reduced workforce participation, reduced productivity, and reduced consumption,” Treasurer Josh Frydenberg told the National Press Club on Tuesday.

“This is equivalent to around what 4 million Australians on the median wage would earn in a week.”

While the Treasury forecasts unemployment to hit a ceiling of 10%, such hemorrhaging of the real economy and the labour force – 1.3 million Australians are on JobSeeker payments – suggests the figure may be surpassed if prudent economic management isn’t shown.

“Right now the labour market and broader economy is so distorted that it is all but impossible to determine how much permanent or more persistent damage has been done,” Pickering said.

But while the government may have four billion reasons to relax restrictions, it’ll need to tread carefully, Pickering said.

“A premature opening runs the risk of creating further shutdowns and will ultimately be more detrimental than a permanent re-opening.”

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