But you will have noticed in the graph today that the seven-day average has dipped for the first time in weeks.

It's a promising sign, but the seven-day average can also be a bit of a rollercoaster, just one that doesn't cause quite as much whiplash.

While the seven day average has dipped slightly today, that doesn't mean the numbers will be trending downwards from now on.

For the seven-day average to keep sliding downwards, there will have to be fewer than 217 new cases confirmed in Victoria at tomorrow's press conference. If there are more than 217, then the seven-day average will start creeping up again.

So where does this 217 number come from? That was how many cases were confirmed last Saturday. This day's figure is clinging on to the end of the seven-day average calculation at the moment, but by tomorrow it will be lopped off and replaced with tomorrow's figure.

Likewise, last Friday there were 428 new cases confirmed in Victoria - that's more than the 300 confirmed today, which caused the seven-day average to dip slightly.

Essentially, it's going to take at least a few more days before it becomes clear which direction daily case numbers in Victoria are headed.