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Posted: 2021-03-21 13:01:00

“Ultimately, we know that pandemics come to an end - but it was about how far we were going to fall. I don’t think anyone understood the extent to which the pandemic would have on the global economy”.

Market watchers widely attribute a cocktail of near-zero interest rates and government stimulus the world over as having laid the foundation for the remarkable market rebound.

The ASX 200 started its climb on the back of news that a trillion-dollar stimulus deal in the US was in the works. Australia’s own JobKeeper stimulus program further boosted investor sentiment.

The ASX 200 hit a post-pandemic peak of 6978.3 on February 25 - reaching a market cap of $2.14 trillion - a 59 per cent rise from the depths of March last year. 

The ASX 200 hit a post-pandemic peak of 6978.3 on February 25 - reaching a market cap of $2.14 trillion - a 59 per cent rise from the depths of March last year. Credit:Louie Douvis

“It has pretty much been a V-shaped recovery here in Australia in terms of employment and how quickly confidence has bounced back,” says Burman Invest chief investment officer Julia Lee.

“We started on a path to recovery as soon as the market saw that stimulus, and the response coming through from central banks and governments.

A quirk of the pandemic and the accompanying lockdowns meant that although consumers were forced to turn to the internet for shopping, work, and general communication, the situation proved a sweet spot for Wall Street’s mega-cap tech companies, as well as ASX payment providers names such as Afterpay and Zip Co, and a swathe of online retailers.

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Australia was also helped as its major export - iron ore- surged to multi-year highs thanks to strong Chinese demand and supply disruptions in pandemic plagued Brazil. It has not only boosted market titans Rio Tinto, BHP and Fortescue Metals but also shielded the federal budget from a more severe hit.

A better-than-expected local earnings season, continually improving economic indicators, and a market-friendly US presidential election in November have also been key drivers for equities in the recovery phase.

However, recent months have seen the ASX trade in a tight range amid a reflation rotation into cyclical stocks such as banks and energy - as well as other areas that suffered during the pandemic.

The ASX 200 hit a post-pandemic peak of 6978.3 on February 25, 2021 - reaching a market cap of $2.14 trillion - a 59 per cent rise from the depths of March last year. The market has since lost a bit of steam and closed 0.6 per cent lower at 6708.2 on Friday, as inflation jitters continue to roil investors.

Mr McCarthy says he too is concerned the market has run a little hot.

“[Legendary investor] Sir John Templeton once said ’Bull markets are born in despair, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria - and I believe we’ve got plenty of information both on the charts and in sentiment that we are at euphoria.”

“One of the toughest things is picking the timing. [Markets] could go up for another year.

“At the moment we ignore every piece of bad news and buy anything. That can’t last forever.”

Mr Hogg was a touch more optimistic, predicting a continued rise on the back of the vaccine rollout.

“[Markets will rise over] the next year or so, driven by the stimulus that is behind us and confidence the vaccine will bring us out of COVID,” he says.

“I do think we will see market corrections as we always do, as the market grows.”

“[But] we have as Australia done a very good job of managing our way through COVID, and as a result we’ve got companies now that are doing a lot better than anyone would have expected 12 months ago.”

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