• Economists at Australian think tank The McKell Institute say Australia’s delayed vaccination program could cost the Australian economy over $1 billion.
• A new report reveals that failing to speed up Australia’s vaccination rollout will increase the risk of new COVID-19 outbreaks and snap lockdowns, with significant economic consequences.
• “These delays will increase the chance of lockdowns and the economic costs that come with them,” The McKell Institute’s executive director Michael Buckland said.
• Visit Business Insider Australia’s homepage for more stories.

Any further delays to Australia’s already waylaid vaccination program could cost the Australian economy $1.4 billion, according to economists.

Research published on Monday by progressive think tank The McKell Institute found that even if Australia replicated the pace of the UK’s vaccination rollout — starting now — the likelihood of further outbreaks and snap lockdowns would cost the economy billions.

Michael Buckland, The McKell Institute executive director told the Sydney Morning Herald that he doesn’t expect the government’s vaccination rollout to be completed by its originally stated deadline of the end of October.

To meet this deadline between 1.47 million and 1.77 million doses would need to be administered weekly, up from the current rate of 127,000 a week.

“That really tells me we’re not going to catch up,” Buckland said.

He said it was crucial Australians understood the consequences of delays to getting the country full-vaccinated.

“It’s vital we are clear-sighted about the cost and impact of a government’s action or inaction,” he said.

“These delays will increase the chance of lockdowns and the economic costs that come with them.”

The report, “Counting the Cost of Australia’s Delayed Vaccine Rollout” revealed projections showing that failing to speed up Australia’s vaccination rollout will increase the risk of new COVID-19 outbreaks and snap lockdowns that researchers warn could cost the economy more than $1 billion.

It compared vaccination rates in Israel, the US, UK, France, Canada and Germany to determine the possible speed of Australia’s rollout, and accounted for the lower risk of outbreaks from early vaccination of frontline workers.

Nevertheless, the report projects that the increased risks of outbreaks in the period — from now to a fully-vaccinated population in October — potential lockdowns in capital cities of around four to 34 days could still cost at least $470 million.

It found the rate of vaccination would need to be accelerated by around 15 times its current pace to meet the targets set out in the federal government’s initial road map — a jump that would make it the second-fastest rollout program in the world in per capita terms.

If the rollout sped up in-line with that of comparable countries, the report said there could be a 40 to 353-day delay in getting 65% of the population vaccinated; the proportion the World Health Organisation estimates is required to reach herd immunity.

Currently only 1.16 million doses have been administered, a far cry from the government’s initial road map to have every Australian vaccinated by October.

The research for the report was undertaken before Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced changes to Australia’s rollout due to the risks linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine.

Border closures contributing to economic fallout

A portion of the economic fallout also comes from Australia’s strict border controls, which are set to stay shut, despite hopes by the national airlines that international flights, additional to the travel bubble with New Zealand, would resume by October.

Qantas, which in February pushed back its anticipated date for a resumption of international flights from July to the end of October, conceded on Wednesday that its original timeline was now unlikely.

Its plans to return to full operations was based on the assumption most Australians would be vaccinated by October 2021.

On Thursday morning the CEO of Virgin Jayne Hrdlicka said the airlines plans to hold off on flights to New Zealand until September still held, but added she was still optimistic flights would resume by October.

Qantas reported on Thursday it had lost $11 billion in revenue last year and increased its debt by $2.5 billion since the pandemic began in March 2020.

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