• The jobs recovery promised by the Morrison government was beginning to slip in some states ahead of the Federal Budget this week.
• New figures from Indeed show Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania all went backwards in the last fortnight.
• Each state’s market remains well above pre-pandemic levels and will be strengthened further by a big spending Budget.
• Visit Business Insider Australia’s homepage for more stories.

Australia’s jobs recovery may still be underway, but some states are beginning to show signs of slowing down.

Exclusive new data shows that while the labour market is still gaining strength, the first signs have appeared that some markets may be reaching a ceiling.

Job ads are now 44.6% higher than they were before the pandemic began, having rebounded with a vengeance since April. Up slightly from 43.1% since the end of last month, the recovery now appears as if it may be slowing.

“Over the past two weeks, we have seen moderation in posting levels across states such as Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania,” Indeed Asia-Pacific chief economist Callam Pickering told Business Insider Australia.

While “postings in these states are still high and well above their pre-pandemic baseline”, they fell in all three over the last fortnight. Contrast that to the country’s most populous states New South Wales and Victoria which rose strongly over the same two weeks. Or South Australia and the ACT which both rocketed higher, albeit off a lower base.

Other than those signs that momentum is starting to wane in some states, the recovery appears firmly on track, surging higher despite the end of the JobKeeper wage subsidy.

Job ads tend to be a forward indicator of employment, with the record number of job vacancies set to absorb some of the 1.3 million Australians out of work at the moment. Treasury estimates expects unemployment, currently at 5.6%, to hit 5% by the end of the year and begin approach 4.5% in 2022.

A separate report from global recruitment software provider JobAdder backs up the strength of the recovery, finding jobs were up by almost 30% in Australia since the beginning of the year. Other data from Roy Morgan meanwhile suggests nearly two in three new jobs have been casual ones, questioning the sustainability of the growth.

On the back of Tuesday’s Federal Budget, Indeed expects the jobs recovery to only be further supported from here on out.

“The federal budget provides further optimism for hiring. By prioritising economic repair over budget repair, the federal government is seeking to push the unemployment rate to levels not seen since before the GFC. That’s good news for both employers and jobseekers,” Pickering said.

“This was a big-spending budget that should create jobs across the country, supporting hiring activity. Strong job postings typically point towards strong employment growth in the coming months and so we should be optimistic around the near-term employment outlook.”

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says the government will continue spending until the unemployment rate has “a four in front” of it. While wage forecasts in the Budget itself pointed to fairly muted growth, Pickering believes “strong employment growth could rapidly change that dynamic.”

“The longer these hiring trends persist the greater the likelihood of stronger wage growth particularly in those areas where skill-shortages emerge.”

There are naturally some discrepancies present with some sectors still suffering as a result of closed borders and vulnerable to sudden restrictions. Tourism, higher education, hospitality and particularly the live events industry are a few that are still suffering to varying degrees.

But, broadly speaking, the recovery remains in full swing.

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