These ideas all make good sense -- but are likely to fail. That's because China, far from being able to act decisively on the world stage, suffers from a chronic leadership void that leaves it paralyzed to act in the face of global crises.
But the reality is that China is so obsessed with a narrow set of issues that it is unable to be more than a character actor on the international stage, appearing in a few specific roles but otherwise out of its depth.
On the other core issue of human rights: Anyone who argues that they are universal is meddling in China's internal affairs. To this end, China supports other countries that are also criticized for violating the declaration, arguing that these are their internal affairs, too.
But on most other issues, China doesn't really care. Drugs, terrorism, public health, climate change -- China has interests in all these issues but rarely takes the lead. At best, it offers a few ideas and then follows deals hammered out by other countries.
This myopic focus on domestic concerns is especially pronounced under Xi Jinping, the least cosmopolitan leader to have run the People's Republic in nearly half a century.
This is why it is illusory to think that China can play a constructive role in Ukraine. On paper, it makes sense. China is Russia's last major market now that the West has largely cut ties with them. Xi's diplomats could easily get Russia's ear and suggest, ever so subtly, that some sort of settlement would be beneficial to all sides.
It would also be in China's best interests to take such a step. China grew rich in the international order that Putin seeks to destroy. Ultimately it needs to compete with the world's leading countries, and to do that it needs an open world system with a free flow of capital and ideas. Slumming it with dysfunctional states like Russia only drags China down.
Instead, China is likely to act neutral but continue to show most of its sympathy for Russia, not Ukraine or the democracies fighting to save its independence.
That's because everything Xi has implemented at home has been to stifle free thought, not unleash it. He views the democratic world with similar distrust. He hopes China will supplant them but with home-grown innovation and not a robust exchange of ideas and products. It is a self-centered world vision, one where ties are mainly zero-sum: you win, I lose.
In this context, if the West is embroiled in a dispute with Russia over Europe, then China wins. Becoming involved in foreigners' disputes makes no sense. Better to stay out of the fray, see who is likely to win, and then cut deals.









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