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Posted: 2022-07-05 03:35:24

Here's the latest analysis from business reporter Gareth Hutchens:

The Reserve Bank will consider lifting interest rates again today.

Some economists think we'll see a big rate rise, with more rate hikes to follow in coming months.

But will rapid rates rises cause growth to slow and unemployment to rise? And if they will, what will it mean for the unemployed?

Well, we already use unemployment to dampen inflation. That could provide a clue.

This inflation is a global problem and experts everywhere are trying to fix it.

But a few weeks ago, American economist Larry Summers said if US policymakers wanted to get their inflation under control they'd have to allow unemployment to rise significantly in coming years.

He said there were few options available to them.

"We need five years of unemployment above 5 per cent to contain inflation — in other words, we need two years of 7.5 per cent unemployment or five years of 6 per cent unemployment or one year of 10 per cent unemployment," he said.

It's not uncommon to hear an economist speak so frankly, and Mr Summers is as mainstream as it gets.

But it was callous.

Through different periods of history, economists like him have often suggested the best "remedy" to kill inflation is higher unemployment.

According to the logic, when you take money away from people they won't have money to spend, so prices will eventually drop and the economy will re-equilibrate.

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