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Posted: 2022-07-19 07:42:10

“As an objective decision maker, it’s not a simple decision. From a public point of view, they may form the oversimplified view that she’s pro or anti-bank depending on the decision.”

ANZ chief executive Shayne Elliott said on Monday he was confident they would get a “fair hearing” by the regulator.

“As the smaller of the major banks, we believe a stronger ANZ here in this state in particular will actually increase competition and drive better outcomes for consumers,” he said.

However, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank chief executive Marnie Baker said the potential transaction would further entrench Australia’s banking oligopoly. Instead, she said a merger between Suncorp Bank and Bendigo and Adelaide Bank would deliver better competition and community benefit.

Meanwhile, analysts on Tuesday delivered their verdicts on the proposed deal, as Suncorp shares retreated following big gains on Monday, falling 5 per cent to close at $11.19.

Citi’s Brendan Sproules said ANZ was paying a “reasonable” price of $4.9 billion for the Queensland bank, and it could deliver value for ANZ over the long term.

However, he added the estimated $680 million in integration costs were surprisingly high, partly because of ANZ’s plan to run Suncorp independently for three years before merging it with ANZ’s other operations.

Morgan Stanley analysts said the strategic rationale and financial implications of the acquisition were “not compelling”.

“At first glance, we don’t think the acquisition materially enhances ANZ’s franchise and it will only marginally change the business mix, although it materially increases exposure to Queensland.”

A number of factors created uncertainty for investors, they said, including competition and regulatory scrutiny.

JP Morgan analyst Andrew Triggs also said the optics of the acquisition were “by no means perfect”, in part because the deal stills needs regulatory approval.

However, he said there was some strategic merit to the deal, as it would help to reshape ANZ by increased exposure in Queensland, improved deposit franchise and reduced institutional exposure.

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“In ANZ’s view, the deal will increase its ability to compete with [CBA and Westpac], which will improve competition,” he said. “It is not clear whether the ACCC will assess the transaction predominantly from a national or state market perspective. ANZ has the smallest home loan book of the majors in Queensland.”

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