In Wollongong, the third-biggest city in NSW, the jobless rate was stuck above 6 per cent for most of the decade before COVID-19. But average annual unemployment for the past 12 months has been just 2.7 per cent, well below Sydney’s rate.
It’s a similar story in Victoria’s second-biggest city, Geelong, where the average annual rate of unemployment was 2.4 per cent last month. That’s down from over 6 per cent in 2019.
Younger, less educated workers are also doing disproportionately well. Analysis by Melbourne University professor Jeff Borland, an expert on the Australian labour market, shows the proportion of 15-24 year-olds with a job has grown at a much faster rate since the COVID crisis than for those aged 25-64 years.
Employment growth since 2019 has also been faster for those with a below-bachelor level post-school qualification (up 1.3 percentage points) than it has been for those with a bachelor degree or above (up 1 percentage point).
The Reserve Bank points out the participation of young people in the labour force is “around its highest rate in recent decades” and youth unemployment is at 40-year lows.
The post-lockdowns period has delivered record-breaking results for women workers. Last month, the share of the female population with a job hit an all-time high (60.4 per cent) as did the share of women full-time workers (39 per cent) and the proportion of hours worked by women (42.5 per cent of the total). To cap all that, the unemployment rate for women reached a record low of 3.36 per cent.
The recent improvement in long-term unemployment is another bright spot – the number of Australians out of work for a year or more was at a 14-year low last month. Research shows long-term unemployment is a major drag on wellbeing, so that improvement will deliver a substantial benefit to the community.
Borland says these trends underscore the “equity benefits” that come with a strong labour market. It is a potent tool to improve economic inclusion. Although, the quality of many low skill jobs, and sluggish wages growth remain a problem.
The jobs recovery that followed the upheavals of COVID-19 has another powerful legacy – it shows Australia should aim for lower jobless rates than has been considered acceptable in the past.
During the 2010s, economic officials assumed that if unemployment in Australia fell much below 5 per cent it would risk excessive wage growth and inflation. But the COVID era has proved much lower levels are sustainable – the unemployment rate has now been below 4 per cent for more than a year and there’s no evidence of a damaging wages blowout.
Australia has probably tolerated an unnecessarily high unemployment rate for much of this century.
Borland calls this lesson a “silver lining” of the pandemic. “The education we’re getting is that the unemployment rate we can aim for is lower than we previously thought,” he says.
That’s great news for workers – the upside-down jobs miracle could be permanent.
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