Add Category
Construction has sprung up on a disputed South China Sea island, prompting speculation that China may be building a new airstrip in the Paracel archipelago, but analysts say it may be too early to tell.
Key points:
- Triton Island is roughly equidistant from the coast of Vietnam and China's island province of Hainan
- China has had a small harbour and buildings on the island for years
- Beijing has refused to provide details of its island construction work other than to say it is aimed at helping global navigation safety
According to satellite photos analysed by The Associated Press (AP), and reports from military news outlet The Warzone, China appears to be constructing an airstrip on Triton Island, which is also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan.
The work on Triton in the Paracel group is said to mirror construction on seven human-made islands in the Spratly group to the east, which have been equipped with airstrips, docks and military systems, although it currently appears to be somewhat more modest in scale.
China claims virtually the entire South China Sea as its own, denying the claims of others and defying an international ruling invalidating its assertion.
As currently laid out, the airstrip would be more than 600 metres in length, long enough to accommodate turboprop aircraft and drones, but not fighter jets or bombers.
Gregory Poling, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said their early analysis wasn't pointing to a possible runway.
The images lack evidence of an apron, taxiway or other infrastructure that would indicate the new works are for an airstrip, he said.
"It's way too short, it's way too thin, it doesn't look like any of the airstrips China has built anywhere in the South China Sea," Mr Poling told the ABC.
"I'm not saying it's impossible, but I'm seeing no compelling evidence that this is what that is."
He added that China's most advanced air base in the the Paracels – at Woody Island – is only around 160 kilometres away, so it's hard to determine its purpose.
"If China can land – and does land – bombers, fighters, heavy transport aircraft nearby, why would they build this rinky-dink airstrip that can only handle tiny prop planes?" he said.
The satellite images show large numbers of vehicle tracks running across much of the island, along with what appear to be containers and construction equipment.
There also appears to be "some kind of embankment or elevated roadway", Mr Poling said.
'Everybody take a breath'
Triton is one of the major islands in the Paracel group, which is roughly equidistant from the coast of Vietnam and China's island province of Hainan.
The United States takes no stance on the sovereignty claims, but regularly sends Navy ships on "freedom of navigation operations" near the Chinese-held islands.
Triton was the focus of one of those missions in 2018.
Triton is one of the 20 military outposts that China has in the compact Paracels.
China has had a small harbour and buildings on the island for years, along with a helipad and radar arrays.
Recently work was green-lit to construct a type of causeway or berm there, Mr Poling said.
China has refused to provide details of its island construction work other than to say it is aimed at helping global navigation safety.
Mr Poling said his team was working on a "small report" they aim to release later this week analysing the recent construction.
"I think our report is basically going to go through this and say, 'everybody take a breath'," he said.
"Maybe there'll be some interesting stuff built on the new areas or connecting with this berm, but it hasn't been built yet."
Mr Poling said there was no need to be "over interpreting" a potential runway just yet.
"Champing at the roadway that they're building is probably less important than whatever we see in a month or two months when this construction project is a little clearer," he said.
China has rejected accusations that it is militarising the crucial waterway, through which an estimated $US5 trillion ($ 7.75 trillion) in trade passes annually, and says it has the right to do as it wishes in its sovereign territory.
China seized full control of the Paracels from Vietnam in a brief 1974 naval conflict.
ABC/AP