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Why did the government knock back Qatar Airways' request to run more flights into Australia?
It's a question that won't go away, especially when airfares are high, international tourist numbers have not recovered since the pandemic, and the transport minister is saying as little as possible.
Qatar had wanted to fly an additional 21 flights per week into Australia's three biggest cities — Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.
Last October, the airline's chief executive, Akbar al Baker, said Qatar wanted more capacity, partly blaming Qantas for higher airfares.
"The largest operator in Australia has cut its flights to 50 per cent of pre-COVID level, more than doubled the price of fares to Australian people in benefit of the shareholders," Mr Al Baker said.
Qantas has since opened up many more seats. The company said air fares are falling, the market is competitive and that it does not set prices for the whole market.
But international air travel remains down.
Flight Centre chief executive Graham Turner said that compared to before the pandemic, the average flights to Europe are 50 to 70 per cent more expensive.
"It's very significant, particularly for those people on lower incomes, who perhaps are visiting relatives," he said.
The transport minister's decision
Since the rejection of Qatar’s bid was revealed last month, Transport Minister Catherine King has said repeatedly that extra flights were not in the national interest and the decision was based on a range of factors.
Ms King declined 7.30's interview request and provided a statement that did not include any reasons for declining Qatar's application.
"These are not commercial decisions about any particular airline but rather treaty-level agreements between countries," the statement said.
The decision has caused confusion in parts of the aviation industry.
"The transport minister should be opening up to the industry and saying what the real reasons are, so that we know what we can deal with," Australian Airports Association chief executive James Goodwin said.
"We should be rolling out the red carpet for any international carriers that want to fly to and from Australia."
Opposition tourism spokesman Kevin Hogan has also pushed for more clarity.
"Why is it not in Australia's national interest to have more tourists coming to a market that still is well below pre-COVID levels? I want to know, the tourism market wants to know, the hotels want to know, well, the tourism operators want to know, the airports want to know."
The Doha Airport incident
One of the suggested reasons dates back to 2020. Several Australian women flying with Qatar were subjected to invasive body searches at Doha Airport as officials searched for the mother of an abandoned baby.
These women wrote to the minister in June, opposing any extra flights for Qatar.
The minister responded in July, revealing: "The Australian government is not considering additional bilateral air rights with Qatar."
Later, the minister was reported as saying the decision on flights was unrelated to the women's treatment.
'Long-term, well-paid, secure jobs'
In parliament in August, the minister defended the decision by referencing Australian jobs.
"We will always consider the need to ensure that there are long-term, well-paid, secure jobs by Australians in the aviation sector when we are making this decision," she said.
But when she was in opposition, Ms King criticised the main employer of Australians in the international air market – Qantas.
"This week, Qantas sacked 2,000 workers, bringing the total jobs lost at the national carrier to 8,500," she told parliament in 2020.
Sydney University professor Rico Merkert said Qantas had already outsourced many jobs and some of its crews on international flights were based overseas. He urged the government to consider the jobs that could be created by allowing more tourists in via Qatar.
'Sufficient competition' on routes
Qatar currently has about 5 per cent of the Australian international air travel market.
Qantas Group, which includes Jetstar, accounts for about 28 per cent of the international air travel market. Emirates, which is in an alliance with Qantas, enjoys another 7 per cent.
"We are more comfortable with the level of competition in the international market than we are in the domestic market, where we see a very concentrated market," said Anna Brakey, a commissioner with the Australian Competition and Consumer Commissioner.
The ACCC plays no role in overseeing the government's air agreements with other countries. But it does assess corporate partnerships, like the alliance between Qantas and Emirates, which was recently re-approved.
"We do see on the overlap routes between Qantas and Emirates that there is sufficient competition on those routes to ensure that we can allow the alliance," Ms Brakey said.
According to Griffith University professor Gui Lohmann, too much competition could threaten the national carrier.
"Federal governments will bail out national carriers for their own national interest," Professor Lohmann said. "At the end of the day, it all comes in terms of increasing taxes if we have to bail out companies like Qantas."
While Qatar has lost out for now, other existing carriers have promised to add more flights in the coming months.
"As more capacity comes back into the market, we hope that it will bring prices down," said Ms Brakey from the ACCC.
"We are keen to see more competition and more capacity in both the international and domestic markets."
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