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It's a peculiar situation, but resource-rich WA is running out of gas.
Key points:
- New data shows the state received just 5 per cent of the renewable energy capacity planned last year
- That has raised doubts about whether coal-fired power stations will be able to close at the end of the decade
- If renewables cannot be built and connected in time, the government may have to increase its reliance on gas
The issue is not so much about what is in the ground, but how much can be produced and supplied to the local market as demand grows.
Like any supply and demand issue, there are two solutions: use less gas or start producing more.
Major resource companies and the state government have already chosen their path, stressing the need for gas as a transition fuel between an energy grid that's heavily dependent on coal to one almost entirely based on renewables.
But it's happening at the same time as climate scientists issue warnings about the ticking "climate time bomb" and stress the need for new fossil fuel projects – including gas – to be stopped.
And while closing coal plants will help, WA still has the most work to do to reduce its emissions of all the states.
So is curtailing gas a realistic option? Or will the state be reliant on those precious molecules for some time still?
The first major warning of WA's gas problem came from analysis by the independent Australian Energy Market Operator last year, warning of a small but manageable gap between 2023 and 2026, but a much larger shortfall into the next decade.
Many factors are fuelling those issues – ranging from the government's plans to close all of its coal-fired power plants by the end of the decade to the massive changes the energy grid is expected to undergo to meet surging demand from industry.
That isn't really up for debate, but the potential solutions are.
Project delays will add to shortfall: Woodside
Addressing an industry forum this week, two of Australia's biggest gas companies were clear the answer was producing more gas.
Woodside's head of Australian operations, Liz Westcott, used her speech to point specifically to the company's Scarborough gas project off the Burrup Peninsula, warning the current shortfall WA is facing could be made worse if the project is delayed.
"I'd go as far to say there is a genuine risk of a long-term gas supply problem for WA," was Ms Westcott's assessment of the situation facing the state as she urged governments "to hold their collective nerve" and "have the courage to approve new gas projects in a timely fashion".
Chevron, one of Woodside's competitors, presented a similar message, stressing the importance of continuing to invest in existing facilities to "enhance the state's energy security," Chevron Australia's Director of Operations, Danny Woodall, said.
He said the energy transition needed to be a balanced one – weighing the importance of reliable and affordable energy against the benefits of clean power.
The government largely agrees.
The size of WA's major energy grid – the South-West Interconnected System – is expected to triple over coming years as industries increasingly electrify, with the state's gas generation capacity to more than double over that time to keep up.
But Energy Minister Bill Johnston told the same event the overall use of gas in WA would not change significantly, because while more gas would be used to generate power, industrial processes would use less as they decarbonise.
“There’s no question that renewable energy will play a bigger role in the future, but of course the total demand for electricity will rise,” Mr Johnston said after the event.
“And that will also draw up the demand for natural gas.”
The need for 'smart and clean'
For environmental scientist Peter Newman though, any rise in gas use is the completely wrong approach.
"It isn't a sensible solution to keep increasing our gas use at a time when we have global boiling," he said.
Instead, Professor Newman said the state needed to focus on taking its energy grid from "dumb and dirty" to "smart and clean".
"There's plenty of solar and wind, we know that," he said.
"But we also have options for the smart systems of storage that can allow us to actually have a grid that is not wasting so much of the energy we now do because it's so dumb."
The WA government is spending billions of dollars on batteries, including in Kwinana and Collie, but they can only store enough energy to boost the grid for relatively short periods.
Gas needed to 'fill the gaps': Minister
Mr Johnston stressed those renewable elements were important and will make up about 80 per cent of WA's power supply over the coming years.
But he said the remaining 20 per cent would need to be met by gas for the foreseeable future because of the unreliability of renewables.
The minister said the stability of gas was important because, unlike the east coast, WA's grid is isolated and needs to be able to cope with a wide variety of situations on its own.
"Just as an example, on a particular day in June this year, there was only nine megawatts of wind being supplied into the grid because there wasn't enough wind to drive the wind turbines," Mr Johnston said.
"On a day like that, in the future, you'll still need gas generators to fill in the gaps. Not to be used all the time, just fill in the gaps.
"Over time, we hope that hydrogen will be able to replace natural gas but it's not quite there yet."
Professor Newman described that as "old thinking".
"It's not good enough. We have to do better than that," he said.
"We have to make this transition. And it isn't going to be that hard, it certainly is going to be cheaper.
He said the government had been taking the easy approach of "just giving into the gas lobby and saying more gas, more gas".
"This is not acceptable any longer. We've got to get rid of the gas."