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Lilla Pearl Coffey graduated from a pre-university high school program in November 2023 — but didn't apply to uni.
The 18-year-old has an International Baccalaureate diploma and would love to be studying arts, or maybe English, but worries about HECS debt and job prospects.
Like many of their cohort they feel now that "there's no room to make mistakes," especially if they choose a humanities degree.
"Every older person tells me uni is the time of your life, you have so many new experiences and you find yourself through uni, but that isn't an option for kids these days," Mx Coffey, who lives with their mums and sister in Brisbane's north, said.
"You have to know yourself before you go to uni because finding yourself is financially burdensome."
The cost of arts degrees doubled under the former Coalition government's Job Ready Graduates program to up to $15,000 a year, while the costs of some other courses dropped.
That policy is expected to change again under the Albanese government's Universities Accord.
The final report was handed to the government late last year and will be released "in due course," according to an education department spokesperson.
Sentiment shifts as enrolments plateau
Peter Hurley, director of Victoria University's Mitchell Institute, said there's been a "sentiment shift" in 2023 school leavers — many are asking if tertiary education, and the debt that it brings, is worth it.
After three decades of growth, the number of university enrolments has plateaued in recent years.
Between 1989 and 2016, the percentage of Australians who were university students by age 19 doubled, from 20 to 40 per cent, according to a report released late last year which tracked higher education policy and trends.
The participation rate has stayed about the same since.
That's down to government policy like Job Ready Graduates, a strong labour market, and COVID-19, Dr Hurley said.
"The environment of the school leavers of 2023 is very different to the environment that their parents experienced," he said.
"University degrees don't buy what they used to.
"Absolutely, you're better off going to university, but maybe not in the same way that you would be 30 years ago."
Arts degrees undermined
Adelaide 2023 high school graduate Harper Forsythe has an ATAR in the "high 90s," far above what they need to get into their preferred degree.
Because of that, they're often told to study something more "lucrative".
Like Mx Coffey, they want to do humanities. They want to get a PhD, and go into academia.
And like Mx Coffey, they aren't going to university this year, although they did get several early admissions offers.
"The reality is, what I want to study is not invested in," Mx Forsythe said.
"Even though I feel immensely proud of my work, I don't feel like that is reflected in the value of the arts and humanities as a whole. So, there's a bittersweet tinge of disappointment, knowing that no matter how well you do, no matter how academically strong you are, people are still going to push you into a different degree."
'We need to think seriously'
Oscar Wadsley graduated from a Hobart high school in 2023 and has applied to work for the defence force just for this year.
He got into law — just what he wanted — but is considering going interstate to study, something he can't yet afford.
The 18-year-old is optimistic, but like many of his cohort, he's also worried about the cost of changing direction if his degree turns out to be the wrong fit.
"It’s not something that we can be scared of. It can’t be a barrier because, if we need to go to uni then that's what it is," he said.
"We're just gonna need to dive in but we do need to think seriously, and a lot of people are taking gap years and working through those, just because they don't want to be diving into something which won't work for them and then have to pay that off over 30, 40, 50 years."
Cost-of-living anxiety compromising study
The cost of living is "compromising" students' learning as they have to consider not only HECS but how they will support themselves through study, Dr Hurley said.
"That's really problematic and something that perhaps is felt more in this generation than in generations passed," he said.
"We need to make sure that university isn't just an extended adolescence, it has to be setting them up into something that is worthwhile and that is valuable to them."
Then there's "credential creep", where students have to study for longer or do higher level courses for the same return as past students, Dr Hurley said.
"What that ends up with is this anxiety: 'is this the right thing that I need to do for where am I going to be when I'm 25 and 30? And is this the right pathway for me?'" he said.
"That can be really difficult for a lot of people because they're coming out of school, they're not sure exactly what they want to do.
"Maybe they're interested in certain things that have higher student fees attached to them, and that weighs upon them."
'You've lied to us'
Mx Coffey will spend next year working and travelling — even though they'd prefer to start their studies now.
They said they feel misled about what post-high school life would be like.
"It's really frustrating when we have all these baby boomers constantly ranting on about how you're so lucky to live here, our universities are so good, and our high schools are so good, it's so easy to get a job in Australia," Mx Coffey said.
"Now that we are adults and we are here, you've lied to us, and so it is very frustrating, but that's the world that we're facing as young adults."