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The discovery of a group of foreign nationals near Broome has revived the vexed politics of asylum boats in Australia.
Prior to 2013, such boats arrived frequently and generated headlines with vigour.
But that changed with the advent of a bipartisan policy to intercept boats in Australian waters and turn them around.
The policy, officially called Operation Sovereign Borders but often called turnbacks, has seen far fewer unauthorised boats reach the Australian continent – about two dozen according to official figures, although those figures are notoriously vague.
That's compared to the 278 that arrived in the peak year of 2012. Most of the two dozen were in the first few months of the turnbacks regime.
But Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has seized on the recent arrival to warn an "armada" is on its way and has accused the government of weakening Operation Sovereign Borders.
Here is what Operation Sovereign Borders and if the government has made changes to the policy.
How the policy works
Australia grants 20,000 humanitarian visas each year. Most of these visas go to people resettled from overseas. The remainder go to people who arrive in Australia on other visas (e.g. tourist or student visas) and seek asylum once they are here.
The UN Refugee Convention, which Australia is party to, obliges protection for asylum seekers who arrive without valid visas. But Australian law has long taken a different approach to asylum seekers in that category, especially those who arrive by boat.
Politicians have offered various justifications for this, including concern about drowning deaths at sea, concern about criminal people smuggling syndicates, and concern that arrivals violate the sovereignty of Australia's borders.
There are two layers to Australia's policy to deter these boat arrivals.
The first layer is the turnbacks approach, which was introduced by the Abbott government in December 2013.
The second layer is the denial of visas to unauthorised boat arrivals, introduced by the Rudd government in July 2013. Since that time, those who arrive by boat have been told they will never be granted permanent residence in Australia.
Instead, they have been detained, typically in another country (Nauru, or previously also Papua New Guinea), where their asylum claims are processed but with no prospect of Australian settlement.
The idea is that if the first layer works, the second won't be needed. In the five-month gap between the enactment of the no-visa layer July 2013 and the turnbacks layer in December 2013, thousands of arrivals entered a years-long limbo, and many remain in community detention.
But once both layers were in place, the number of arrivals slowed considerably, as did the number of people held in offshore detention centres. By mid-2023, only two asylum seekers were left in Nauru.
That number has since grown again – a group was transferred there late last year after a different boat arrival, and the 39 who arrived last week have now joined them.
But these people are still covered by layer two. Their arrival, and brief sojourn, in remote Western Australia have not altered their prospects of Australian resettlement, which remain nil.
Has the policy changed?
The opposition has accused the government of weakening both layers of Operation Sovereign Borders, the first by cutting funding for border patrols and the second by abolishing a visa category.
On the border patrols claim, Mr Dutton said on Monday the Albanese government had "taken $600 million out of border protection".
The claim was first made by the Coalition's Home Affairs spokesperson, James Paterson, in Senate estimates last May.
Senator Paterson noted that projected funding for border enforcement (which includes Operation Sovereign Borders, among other things), is set to be lower in the next three financial years compared to the figure for last financial year, to a total of about $600 million.
But then-home affairs secretary Mike Pezzullo told him this should not be interpreted as a "cut" or a "planned reduction".
Mr Pezzullo explained the actual funding for Operation Sovereign Borders was determined by ministers one year ahead based on need, which meant figures three years ahead were not meaningful.
"What happens at every MYEFO … and I've been confident and lucky nine times over with four treasurers – is there's an adjustment made to Operation Sovereign Borders," he said.
"Governments always, in my experience, consider very carefully propositions that come forward to shore up and reinforce the Border Force's maritime capabilities … I could go back over 10 budgets, whether it's Treasurer Hockey or Treasurer Morrison or Treasurer Frydenberg, and the estimate beyond the immediate appropriation year [is lower]."
In other words, the budget always makes it look like a cut is coming, but it never does, because the Border Force ultimately gets what it says it needs from Coalition and Labor governments alike.
(Mr Pezzullo was sacked last year after the revelation of texts he exchanged with a Liberal party operative.)
Mr Dutton has also suggested the government "suspended or cancelled surveillance flights".
In estimates last October, officials confirmed there had been a six per cent decrease in sea patrols and a 14 per cent decrease in air patrols undertaken by the Border Force this year compared to last year.
But officials said this was due to pilot shortages, a spike in staff illnesses, and the growing maintenance requirements of an ageing fleet. They also noted the shortfall in Border Force patrols had been adequately mitigated with the help of Defence.
Temporary visas
Mr Dutton's claim about visas relates to the government's abolition of Temporary Protection Visas.
These visas have no direct relevance to present-day boat arrivals – they were used for those who arrived prior to Operation Sovereign Borders in 2013 but had long since become obsolete. They would not have been used for last week's arrivals even if they still existed.
But Mr Dutton said the significance was symbolic. He argued it would allow people smugglers to convince desperate asylum seekers the risk of a journey was worth taking.
"The temporary protection visa is a very important part of telling those people who want to pay money in tragic circumstances to get on a boat, that they won't get a permanent outcome," he said.
"The people smugglers look at that and they package it up in a social media message on their Facebook pages and Twitter feeds, and they email it out to people that they know are willing to pay money to get and say, 'look … eventually in Australia, you'll get out into the community'. It's all that layer upon layer of weakness."
This vibes-based assessment is harder to quantify. It also cuts both ways.
In a statement on Friday, Rear Admiral Brett Sonter, the commander of Operation Sovereign Borders, said "alternate narratives" that portrayed Australia's policies as weak would themselves encourage leaders.
This clear allusion to the opposition has been picked up by the prime minister, who said Mr Dutton was himself "sending a message to people smugglers that he somehow is a cheer squad for them. The truth is, Operation Sovereign Borders has remained in place".