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Posted: 2020-05-05 23:26:00

Good morning. The sun is shining, the birds are singing, and everyone is talking about reopening the economy. Is it a stupid idea? Let’s find out!

1. Scott Morrison might have once warned us to buckle in for six months of lockdown misery, but it seems the scale of economic damage has changed his tune. “We now need to get one million Australians back to work – that is the curve we need to address,” he said after emerging from national cabinet yesterday afternoon. He was light on detail as to how this is going to happen – aside from saying the states will be empowered to develop their own timetables for reopening – but restrictions could be eased as soon as Friday, with an aim to having a largely functional economy in July.

2. The RBA kept interest rates on hold at the record low of 0.25% yesterday, surprising no one. “The Board will not increase the cash rate target until progress is being made towards full employment and it is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2–3% target band,” said the central bank’s governor, Philip Lowe. Even before the economic catastrophe of the coronavirus, it was widely expected Australia would be in a low-interest rate environment for a long while, so don’t expect this to budge.

3. The RBA has also warned that a premature reopening could result in more substantial economic devastation. While agreeing with the government that restrictions would have to be lifted to avoid a more precarious economic situation, Lowe said a situation where restrictions had to be reimposed would also be bad. “On the other hand, if the lifting of restrictions is delayed or the restrictions need to be reimposed or household and business confidence remains low, the outcomes would be even more challenging than those in the baseline scenario.”

4. Fair warning: here comes two grim bits of official economic data which landed yesterday. Firstly, jobs. Initial Australian job losses have been quantified by the ABS, with 7.5% of jobs disappearing in the first month of the government’s social distancing measures. Applied to the entire labour force, it suggests nearly one million people lost their job between 14 March and 18 April.

5. Next cab off the rank is super. Official figures from APRA show 665,310 Australians applied to access their superannuation early in just the first week of the program. While only a quarter had been processed by 26 April, the demand would ultimately see $5.3 billion in retirement savings withdrawn. The figures put the current rate of withdrawals at twice the pace of deposits.

6. Qantas is extending coronavirus cancellations through to the end of July, as CEO Alan Joyce warns it could ‘take years’ for international travel demand to return. The July cancellations are likely to extend further, given the fact most economists believe international travel is off the cards until 2021 at the earliest. Qantas, after securing funding against some of its fleet – with the possibility to raise more funds if needed – thinks it can survive the current challenging conditions until the end of 2021, if need be.

7. Airbnb is cutting 25% of staff — 1,900 jobs — after its business has been slammed by the coronavirus crisis. The cuts are meant to refocus the company on its core business of home sharing; the company plans to pause or cut back other efforts such as offering hotel accommodations or making travel videos, CEO Brian Chesky told employees in an internal letter. Although Airbnb has raised $US2 billion in recent weeks, it expects its revenue this year to be less than half the $US4.8 billion it recorded in 2019, Chesky said.

8. Uber’s CEO told employees during an all-hands meeting on Tuesday that it was close to finalising its own layoffs, saying that plans would be announced within two weeks. Some employees think layoffs could hit next week, with one source telling Business Insider the company could trim 4,000 staff, including attrition. The company has already slashed jobs at its Middle East unit and shuttered Uber Eats operations in a handful of countries.

9. The UK has now suffered the highest number of coronavirus deaths in Europe. More than 32,000 people, who tested positive for COVID-19, have died. It is second only in the world to the US for deaths of those who have tested positive.

10. Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line tanked as much as 24% on Tuesday after the company said in an SEC filing that there was “substantial doubt” about its ability to continue operating as it faces a liquidity crunch. The company said it expected to report a net loss for both the first quarter and all of 2020. The entire cruise industry is understandably under the knife right now – even as Carnival says it plans to resume some cruises in July.

BONUS ITEM

Elon Musk and Grimes had a kid and they named him ‘X Æ A-12’. Yes, I agree, that is very annoying. Or it could be a joke. Oh well. Billionaires are weird.

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